See what's coming before it happens

One of President Trump's campaign promises back in his 2024 campaign was to overhaul America's current immigration system and in the past few months, he has done exactly that. From the increased amount of Ice Raids to revamping the H1-B Visa, Trump's immigration reforms are going full steam ahead. However, there is another reform that he has pushed that while it does not get as much media attention or online outrage as the ICE raids, it is still a policy that is interesting and would have a large impact on immigration to America. You have heard of the Green Card, now prepare for the Gold Card.

The current Green Card by investment or the EB-5 program works like this: An individual would invest in the US Economy. The standard is 1,050,000 USD but it can be lowered to 800,000 USD if the investment is in a TEA or Targeted Employment Area which is usually a rural or high unemployment area. The investment must be able to create 10 permanent jobs for American workers. Additionally it must satisfy the USCIS "at risk" requirement for 2 years which means that the investment made by the immigrant may be subject to potential loss or gain depending on how well or bad the business does. The funds used must also be proven to be legitimately sourced and not illegally obtained. Once successful, the family of the EB-5 investor can also come over to the United States.

The Gold Card works a bit differently. On September 19, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order that established the Gold Card. The order states that an individual who makes an unrestricted gift to the Department of Commerce or DOC of a million dollars or 2 million for corporations, which be eligible for an expedited immigration process. Now this is different as usually, the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security are the ones who usually handle the visa and the immigration process but this order now gives some of that authority to the DOC which now will be the one implementing the program. What also makes the policy different in how the investment works as the Gold Card system is a direct gift to the DOC which transfers the money to the US Treasury rather than an investment so no jobs need to be created. The goal here as stated by the White House will be to realign America's immigration system to one that benefits the nation and which also prioritizes immigrants that will be considered high value.

Now before you go off finding that one million dollars if you are looking to move to America, you should know that this Gold Card may not actually be allowed. The creation of new Visa categories or any modification for the eligibility criteria of green cards are powers not in the hands of the president but in the hands of congress. Their power to regulate immigration is vested in them by the constitution underneath Article I, Section 8, Clause 18 and therefore the president cannot just create a new Visa Category via Executive Order. Which means any purchases made for the Gold Card may be rendered invalid especially when it is challenged in the courts. The people who are looking to get residency in the US know this or at least their lawyers should know this and therefore would probably wait for a final judgement from the courts before making their purchase so it is likely that the amount of Gold Cards sold in 2025 would be zero.

So we're left with a core question: who wins out, Trump or Congress?

The president clearly wants to expand his immigration authority. Congress has constitutional power over immigration and has shown willingness to challenge executive overreach. The two branches are in direct conflict, and the resolution won't come from policy debate. It will come from courts, timelines, and ultimately, how much political capital each side wants to spend on this specific fight.

But there's a way to determine what informed people actually think will happen. Prediction markets work differently than traditional forecasting. Everyday people risk real money on what they believe will happen. When thousands are financially motivated to find the truth, the collective intelligence often outperforms traditional news.

Right now, the market is pricing zero Gold Card sales for 2025 at 90% likelihood. It's been months since Trump announced this. Potential buyers and their legal teams have had time to weigh the constitutional risk. The odds aren't in Trump's favor. The legal barrier is significant, and the market is reflecting that reality.

Link to the market here

This creates a legitimate trading opportunity. If you go with the crowd at 90% odds, you're looking at a roughly 10% gain if the prediction holds. That might seem modest, but conservative trading compounds. Small, consistent wins across multiple markets add up over time. You're taking on minimal risk to capture a fairly predictable outcome.

The timeline matters here. We're late in the year. Unless something dramatic shifts in the courts or Trump finds an unexpected legislative path forward, the market should trend closer to certainty as December approaches. A 90% position now could easily move to 95% or higher in the final weeks. That steady compression of odds is where patient traders capture value.

Insiders will always have an advantage. Legal teams working directly with Trump's administration, congressional staff monitoring the litigation, immigration attorneys tracking court filings: these people get information weeks or months before the general market does. A favorable court ruling or unexpected regulatory shift could move the needle fast. But the collective intelligence seems confident on this one.

Thousands of people with real money on the line are converging on the same conclusion: Gold Card sales in 2025 are unlikely. That kind of market alignment reflects genuine legal analysis, timing constraints, and a shared understanding of constitutional power structures.

The market sees where this is heading. Our research points the same direction.

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When it comes to absolution, a pardon from the President of the United States is one of the highest forms that one can receive in their life. With a stroke of a pen, their crimes, which usually are federal in nature and therefore have a conviction rate of over 90%, are forgiven. The person is free from any punishment and legal liabilities that they may have had to receive due to their conviction albeit the crime will still be on their records. Barring impeachments, the President has the power to pardon anyone convicted of federal crimes. So this brings up the question: who will Trump pardon this year? Well folks, we would like to put forward Changpeng Zhao, more commonly known as CZ and the former CEO of Binance, as the most likely candidate for a pardon this year.

First let us look over the background of Chanpeng Zhao or as we will refer to him from this point onwards, CZ. He was born in Jiangsu Province in China in 1977. His family moved to Canada in the late 1980s where he earned a degree in Computer Science from McGill University. He then proceeded to get an internship with a subcontractor for the Tokyo Stock Exchange and in 2005, he moved to Shanghai where he started a business called Fusion Systems which specialized in automated high frequency trading and systems. After hearing about Bitcoin from Bobby Lee, CZ went all in, selling his apartment in Shanghai to invest in Bitcoin. In 2017, he founded Binance which after less than a year would become the largest Cryptocurrency Exchange in the world which also made him a billionaire.

However, his and Binance's legal troubles would also begin soon after where in 2019, Binance would be banned in the US and another entity called Binance US would be created so as to comply with all US regulations. In 2021, Binance would be investigated by the IRS and DOJ for money laundering and Tax Evasion. 2022 saw the company being investigated by the SEC for their 2017 ICO which the SEC alleged was an illegal sale of a security. In November 2023, after being charged with violating the BSA or Bank Secrecy Act due to failing to maintain an effective anti money laundering program at Binance, CZ would plead guilty. He was sentenced to four months in prison after taking a plea deal and Binance agreed to settle for $4.3 Billion.

With all his legal issues, the question is then, why would President Trump pardon CZ? In his Second Term, the President who was once a Crypto Skeptic is now one of its biggest proponents and in fact, he helped launch his family's own crypto venture called World Liberty Financial or WLFI for short which was co-founded by his sons and the sons of his envoy to the Middle East and Russia, Steven Witkoff. It is alleged that before seeking a pardon, Binance helped with the launch of WLFI's stable coin, USD1 by helping write the basic code that helps power the Cryptocurrency. It is also alleged that $2 billion worth of USD1 still remains in Binance's Wallets.

Now this is all speculation but what is not speculation is that Donald Trump wants to make the United States a Crypto powerhouse. There is even a whole working group from the White House that is dedicated to making that a reality with there even being a report that is available for reading on the official White House Website. He even appointed David Sacks, a known Crypto Advocate, as the White House Crypto and AI Czar. During his 2024 presidential campaign, he made an appearance in the 2024 Bitcoin Conference and gave the keynote address where he outlined his vision and policies for Crypto's future in America.

This is now where the pardon for CZ makes more sense as if it were just because of WLFI which Trump is no longer officially involved with, it would been seen as a pardon for a personal favor but if one were to consider the fact that this administration is very friendly with the Crypto Industry, a pardon for CZ makes sense from a policy stand point, Why? Because the previous administration under Joe Biden and especially under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler were seen as really hostile to the industry and as the timeline shows, CZ was convicted during the Biden administration.

By pardoning CZ, it would send a signal to the Crypto industry that it is welcome in America and that they may pursue not only their business but their values of privacy and decentralization without much interference from the federal government. It would also allow Crypto entrepreneurs and founders to start companies and do business without the fear of an investigation or persecution. This is why we think that a pardon for CZ is likely as it aligns with Trump's policy to make America the go to destination for Cryptocurrency related businesses.

So the real question becomes: who else might Trump pardon in the crypto space?

The answer depends on how you read the administration's intentions. Is this a one-off gesture to a major figure, or the opening move in a broader rehabilitation of crypto founders and executives who faced prosecution under the previous regime? The pardon itself suggests the latter, but we can look deeper into what informed people actually think will happen.

Prediction markets work differently than traditional forecasting. Everyday people risk real money on what they believe will happen. When thousands are financially motivated to find the truth, the collective intelligence often outperforms traditional news.

Right now, prediction markets are pricing CZ's pardon at around 43% likelihood. That's a notably higher probability compared to other potential pardons, which suggests the market has reason to believe he's more likely than most. People don't converge on the same conclusion without signal. Whether that's insider knowledge, pattern recognition from his strategic importance to the industry, or recognition of how aligned he is with this administration's crypto vision, the market is treating him as meaningfully different from other candidates. That positioning carries weight.

Link to market

This is a higher risk, higher reward market. The 43% odds mean you're betting against consensus if you take the position. But that's also where opportunity lives. There's genuine conviction behind this probability, not just casual speculation. The crypto community, legal observers, and people with real money on the line are converging on the idea that CZ has a real shot at getting his conviction reversed or pardoned.

Our research points the same direction. The policy alignment is there. The signal from Trump's pivot toward crypto is unmistakable. CZ's interests and capabilities align very conveniently with the administration.

Retroactive Disclaimer:

Editor's Note: This report was originally published October 12, 2025. At the time of writing, prediction markets priced CZ's pardon at approximately 43%. President Trump issued the pardon on October 23, 2025. Those who positioned at the reported odds would have realized approximately 138% gains. This analysis serves as a historical reference demonstrating how prediction market signals aligned with subsequent policy outcomes.

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The Financial Reality

OpenAI operates under extraordinary financial pressure that shapes every product decision. The company committed $300 billion to Oracle over five years for cloud computing infrastructure, with Nvidia investing $100 billion back into OpenAI in a circular financing arrangement where Oracle then spends approximately $40 billion on Nvidia chips to build OpenAI's data centers. This creates a closed loop where the same money cycles between three technology giants, each serving as customer, supplier, and investor to the others.

The math presents a stark challenge. OpenAI generated roughly $4.3 billion in the first half of 2024 while losing $2.5 billion in the same period. Yet the company has locked in infrastructure commitments exceeding $1 trillion across partnerships with Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, and others. These obligations demand immediate revenue generation, not long-term R&D projects with uncertain payoffs.

Evidence of Short-Term Revenue Focus

Recent product decisions reveal OpenAI prioritizing rapid monetization over careful market positioning. The October 2025 release of Sora2 demonstrated this shift. OpenAI initially launched the video generator with an opt-out system for copyrighted characters, meaning studios would need to explicitly request their intellectual property not be used. Within three days, facing backlash from the Motion Picture Association and widespread copyright infringement, OpenAI reversed course to an opt-in model with revenue-sharing proposals.

The Sora app climbed to the top of App Store charts immediately. Users generated videos featuring SpongeBob, Pikachu, and other copyrighted characters that went viral on Instagram and TikTok, platforms where OpenAI captures minimal revenue. Sam Altman later acknowledged the app was "generating much more than we expected per user," burning massive compute resources for content consumed primarily off-platform.

This contradicts Altman's own statements about avoiding short-term temptations. In an August 2025 interview with Cleo Abrams, he noted: "There's a lot of short-term stuff we could do that would really juice growth or revenue or whatever and be very misaligned with that long-term goal. And I'm proud of the company and how little we get distracted by that. But sometimes we do get tempted." When pressed for examples, Altman cited the decision not to create "a sex bot avatar in ChatGPT yet."

That restraint dissolved by October 14, 2025, when Altman announced ChatGPT would allow "erotica for verified adults" starting December 2025. The announcement, part of a broader move to "treat adult users like adults," came one day after California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill restricting minors' access to AI companion chatbots. The timing suggests OpenAI moved quickly to capture market share other AI companies might hesitate to pursue.

The Browser Landscape

Standalone AI browsers already exist, though with limited mainstream adoption. The Browser Company of New York released Dia in beta in June 2025 after putting its Arc browser into maintenance mode. Dia integrates AI directly into browsing through an interactive insertion cursor and automated task execution. In September 2025, Atlassian announced plans to acquire The Browser Company, signaling validation of the AI browser concept but also highlighting that scaling requires enterprise backing.

Perplexity launched Comet in July 2025, initially available only to Max subscribers paying $200 per month. By October 2025, facing competition from Google's Gemini integration in Chrome and OpenAI's anticipated browser entry, Perplexity made Comet free worldwide. The waitlist had grown to millions, but free access became necessary to achieve market share against entrenched competitors.

Neither Dia nor Comet has demonstrated the ability to challenge Chrome's dominance or achieve sustainable profitability as standalone products. Chrome maintains over 3 billion users. The AI browser category remains experimental, appealing primarily to early adopters willing to accept reliability issues for novel features.

Technical and Security Barriers

AI browsers introduce substantial security risks that require extensive testing before responsible public release. Anthropic's Claude for Chrome extension, launched in August 2025 to 1,000 Max plan users as a research preview, illustrates the challenges. The company conducted 123 test cases across 29 attack scenarios and found that without safety mitigations, malicious actors achieved a 23.6% success rate in prompt injection attacks. In one test, a fake email instructed Claude to delete messages for "security reasons," and Claude complied without confirmation.

Anthropic reduced the attack success rate to 11.2% with safety measures including site-level permissions, action confirmations, and blocking access to financial services and adult content. Even with improvements, the company emphasized that "vulnerabilities remain before we can make Claude for Chrome generally available."

For context on capability benchmarks, Claude Sonnet 4.5 scores 61.4% on OSWorld, a benchmark testing AI models on real-world computer tasks. This represents a significant improvement from the 42.2% Claude Sonnet 4 achieved just four months earlier. However, many researchers believe success rates need to reach substantially higher levels before agentic computer use becomes reliable enough for daily adoption.

OpenAI's Current Browser Efforts

OpenAI released Operator in January 2025 as a research preview, later renaming it to ChatGPT agent in July 2025. The tool allows users to delegate browser-based tasks to an AI agent, but operates within the ChatGPT interface using the user's existing browser rather than functioning as a standalone browser application. Users can watch ChatGPT navigate websites, fill forms, and execute multi-step workflows through a dedicated window showing real-time actions.

ChatGPT agent represents OpenAI's current approach to browser automation: augmenting existing browsers rather than replacing them. The system requires users to grant significant permissions and operates with limitations, including prompt injection vulnerabilities similar to those affecting Anthropic's implementation.

The evidence suggests OpenAI will likely not release a standalone browser by October 31, 2025, but the outcome remains uncertain.

Yet the market tells a different story. We can look to prediction markets to understand what informed people actually think will happen. Prediction markets work differently than traditional forecasting. Everyday people risk real money on what they believe will happen. When thousands are financially motivated to find the truth, the collective intelligence often outperforms traditional news.

Link to the market

At the time of writing on October 19, 2025, prediction markets were pricing a browser release at approximately 84%, meaning "no browser by October 31" was priced at only 16%. Our research points toward no release. The market is pricing the opposite.

This creates an asymmetrical opportunity. Most of the market believed a browser release would happen despite the absence of any public information suggesting imminent launch. No beta was announced. No announcement was made. Yet the market had conviction. Rumors suggest the largest positions in this market were held by OpenAI insiders, and the market appeared to be pricing their knowledge rather than public signals. When you're going against 84% market conviction with research that points the other direction, you're either missing something or positioned for significant gains if you're right.

Our research points toward caution and extended timelines. The market reflected confidence in a near-term release. The outcome would reveal which side had better information.

Post-Mortem Note (October 21, 2025)

OpenAI released a standalone browser on October 21, 2025.

Our research was incorrect. The market was right. This outcome illuminates a crucial pattern: insider knowledge in tech markets, particularly around OpenAI and Google, runs deeper than public signals suggest. The market was pricing what insiders knew, not what the public could see. We will weigh insider positioning signals more heavily in future analysis, especially when market odds diverge sharply from what public information alone would justify.

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